Emerging Market Strategies

William Gamble

Solving the Immigration Problem: Declining Dollar and Recession

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This entry was posted on 4/2/2008 2:50 PM and is filed under uncategorized.

Why build a fence when you can stop immigration with the value of the dollar? One of the unintended consequences of the falling dollar is falling illegal immigration. It has been generally reported that the dollar has fallen against the Euro and the Yen. What has not generally been reported is that it has also fallen against the Filipino Peso and the Brazilian real. This makes any money earned in the US worth less when it is sent home. As a result the US is not longer the country of choice for illegal immigrants from countries with strong currencies. They would rather go to Europe. The US share of remittances to Latin America has declined from 90% to 80%. The Mexican Peso has been relatively stable against the dollar, but construction jobs in the US have fallen and with them the lure of better wages.

The total projected that remittances to developing countries increased to $240bn in 2007 compared to $221bn in 2006, but the value of some of those remittances has declined with the dollar. India was the biggest remittances recipient last year with $24.5bn, followed by Mexico at $24.2bn and China with $21bn. However, because of the dollar's decline against the Filipinos peso (25%), and against the Brazilian real (21%) have been particularly acute, remittances to those countries have declined in purchasing power. Of course, most Filipinos do not work in the US. They are still hurt by the dollar's decline because they work in Arab Gulf countries and Hong Kong where the local currency is pegged to the dollar.

 

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